Europe at a crossroads

Economic decline and loss of competitiveness

The recently published US National Security Strategy argues that Europe is experiencing a long-term economic decline that has weakened its global influence and strategic weight. Europe once represented approximately a quarter of global GDP in 1990, but today accounts for roughly fourteen percent. The document attributes this decline to economic frameworks characterized by excessive regulation, rigid bureaucratic structures, and interventionist policy environments that discourage innovation and hinder industrial competitiveness. According to the strategy, these structural weaknesses have prevented Europe from adapting to the accelerating pace of global competition, particularly against rapidly industrializing rivals such as China.

Germany, traditionally the engine of European industry, is presented as an example of this loss of competitiveness. Energy price shocks following the war in Ukraine have pushed major manufacturing firms to relocate operations abroad, including to China, where they have regained access to cheaper energy sources via Russian supply lines unavailable to European markets. The document suggests that such developments illustrate a dangerous reversal of dependency: Europe now relies on its strategic competitors for economic survival. For the United States, a Europe that is economically fragile lacks the capacity to invest meaningfully in defense, contribute to global strategic initiatives, or maintain stability within its own borders, turning Europe’s internal economic problems into a matter of American national concern.

A civilizational crisis

Beyond economics, the strategy describes what it calls a profound civilizational crisis unfolding across Europe. It argues that Europe is struggling with the combined effects of mass migration, demographic collapse through historically low birth rates, and the erosion of cultural continuity. The document maintains that the scale of migration seen in recent decades is reshaping the continent’s demographic landscape so rapidly that several European nations may approach majority-non-European populations within a few decades, transforming the cultural character of Europe to an extent not seen in modern history.

The document also warns of political and cultural consequences arising from this transformation, asserting that many European societies are losing confidence in their historical identity and shared values. It portrays Europe as having entered a period of self-doubt in which political elites are reluctant to defend national culture or articulate civilizational principles. This insecurity, it argues, has been compounded by restrictions on free expression, speech regulation, and media environments that discourage open debate on the most sensitive issues of migration, population, and security. Without a strong civilizational identity, the strategy contends, Europe lacks the societal cohesion necessary to make difficult political decisions, to invest in long-term economic restructuring, or to defend itself militarily. It warns that if these trends continue unchecked, Europe could become “unrecognizable” within twenty years.

Defense dependency and the future of NATO

Another central theme of the strategy is Europe’s dependence on the United States for defense. For many decades European NATO members have failed to meet agreed-upon obligations, particularly the two-percent-of-GDP benchmark for defense spending. As a result, Washington has carried the overwhelming share of NATO’s financial and military burden. The strategy calls for a fundamental redirection and insists that Europe must take primary responsibility for its own security. It establishes a new expectation that European nations commit up to five percent of GDP to defense, reflecting what the document describes as the true cost of sustaining peace in an increasingly unstable world.

Linked to this critique is a reappraisal of NATO’s strategic purpose. The strategy argues that NATO’s decades-long model of continuous expansion has increased geopolitical tensions and drawn the United States into commitments without clear benefit. It envisions an evolution of the alliance toward a structure where European states are strong, sovereign actors rather than reliant dependents. In this view, genuine partnership requires balanced capability, and an alliance held together by disproportionate American support is unsustainable. The document frames this shift not as abandonment, but as modernization: a partnership in which Europe stands beside the United States rather than behind it.

The Ukraine War and the search for stability

The strategy identifies the war in Ukraine as the most urgent strategic challenge facing Europe. It argues that the conflict must be brought to a negotiated resolution as rapidly as possible, both to halt the human suffering and to avoid escalation into a larger confrontation involving nuclear powers. Prolonged conflict, it asserts, threatens to devastate European economies, destabilize governments, and perpetuate polarization within European political systems. The document contends that although large portions of European populations support a negotiated settlement, political leadership—often reliant on fragile coalition arrangements—has resisted public sentiment and in some cases attempted to suppress debate over alternatives to continued escalation.

The strategy maintains that a sustainable peace in Ukraine is essential to restoring stability across the Eurasian region. It insists that the United States does not seek Russian domination of Europe, nor a permanent proxy conflict, but rather a stable European environment capable of focusing on long-term challenges such as economic renewal and defense reform. In this framing, the Ukraine crisis represents a turning point: either Europe will choose a path of negotiation and reconstruction, or it will remain trapped in a destructive strategy of prolonged confrontation.

The U.S. vision for the future of Europe

Despite the severity of its critique, the strategy affirms that Europe remains strategically and culturally essential to the United States. It emphasizes that the transatlantic partnership is not being rejected but reframed. The document outlines a vision of Europe that is strong, sovereign, and self-reliant; confident in its cultural identity; and capable of defending its territory independently. It calls for a revitalized industrial base and a more balanced economic relationship that avoids both protectionism and dependency. It stresses the importance of Europe contributing meaningfully to global power competition, particularly by resisting China’s growing technological and industrial leverage and by protecting Western intellectual property and supply chains.

The strategy supports political movements in Europe that emphasize patriotism, national sovereignty, and democratic accountability, rather than technocratic governance by supranational institutions. It expresses a belief that Europe must rebuild its civilizational foundations in order to recover political legitimacy and strategic purpose. The future of the Western alliance, in this view, depends on shared strength, shared sacrifice, and shared responsibility—not indefinite American underwriting.

A strategic turning point

In conclusion, the National Security Strategy portrays Europe as standing at a historic crossroads. The continent faces a choice between continuing along a trajectory defined by economic stagnation, demographic decline, cultural insecurity, and strategic dependence, or undertaking a process of renewal that restores national sovereignty, industrial strength, and cultural confidence. The coming decade will determine whether Europe becomes an equal partner capable of shaping global affairs or fades into geopolitical irrelevance under the influence of more dynamic rivals.

Whether one agrees with the document’s assessment or not, the stakes are undeniable. Europe’s future direction will shape global power balances, transatlantic cooperation, and the defense of the Western world. The moment is decisive, and the choices being made now across European capitals will determine not only the fate of the continent but the character of the international order for generations to come.