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The Bitcoin Leviathan

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Founded in 1989 by Michael Saylor and Sanju Bansal, MicroStrategy began life as a business intelligence (BI) software firm. Its early mission was straightforward: help companies analyze large datasets to make better decisions. The company grew rapidly in the 1990s, riding the dot-com wave and securing contracts with major corporations and government agencies. But MicroStrategy’s early success came crashing down in 2000, when accounting irregularities forced a restatement of earnings. Its stock collapsed, wiping out billions in market value. Though the company survived, the following decade saw it lose ground to larger rivals like Oracle and SAP. By the late 2010s, MicroStrategy was a mid-tier analytics vendor with flat revenues, generating roughly $400 million a year. In August 2020, MicroStrategy shocked Wall Street by announcing it would adopt Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset. Citing fears of inflation and dollar debasement, Saylor redirected the company’s cash pile into Bitcoin, purchasing 21,454 BTC for $250 million.What began as a bold experiment quickly became a corporate identity. Over the next several years, the company financed further Bitcoin acquisitions through equity raises, convertible bonds, and debt issuance. By 2024, its Bitcoin treasury had swelled to more than 400,000 coins. In February 2025, the company officially rebranded as Strategy Inc., signaling that its core identity was no longer software but Bitcoin accumulation.


The world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder

As of September 2025, Strategy holds 632,457 BTC, valued at roughly $69–71 billion. That represents close to 3% of all Bitcoin in circulation, dwarfing the holdings of other corporates such as Tesla, Block, or Coinbase. Strategy has become, in effect, a publicly traded Bitcoin ETF with leverage. Investors buy its stock (MSTR) not for its business software, but as a way to gain institutional exposure to Bitcoin without holding the digital asset directly. With its expected inclusion in the S&P 500 index, Strategy is about to be forced into the portfolios of passive investors worldwide. While its Bitcoin story dominates headlines, Strategy still sells enterprise analytics software. In 2024, that business generated around $463 million in revenue. In relative terms, this is negligible: the software segment’s contribution to overall valuation is minimal, worth perhaps $1–2 billion if valued independently.Yet the company’s market capitalization now hovers near $95 billion, far above the market value of its Bitcoin reserves alone.


The valuation puzzle

This discrepancy raises questions. If Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings are worth about $70 billion, why is its equity valued closer to $95 billion? The $25 billion gap cannot be explained by the software business. Rather, it reflects a combination of factors. Investors tend to see Strategy as a leveraged bet on Bitcoin, since the company routinely issues debt and equity to expand its holdings. At the same time, the stock carries a scarcity premium: it is one of the few large-cap, regulated vehicles offering direct Bitcoin exposure, and soon it will be included in the S&P 500, making it even harder for institutional investors to avoid. Finally, there is what might be called the “Saylor premium,” a reflection of Michael Saylor’s relentless advocacy for Bitcoin and the almost cult-like loyalty he has built among believers. But these premiums cut both ways. In bull markets, they inflate Strategy’s value well beyond the worth of its Bitcoin. In bear markets, they collapse, historically pushing the stock into a discount relative to its holdings.

Strategy Inc. has transformed itself from a struggling software firm into the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder. In doing so, it has become a lightning rod for institutional Bitcoin adoption and a convenient proxy for investors unable or unwilling to hold Bitcoin directly.Yet the numbers suggest caution. With Bitcoin worth $70 billion on its books and the software arm adding perhaps $2 billion of value, Strategy’s $95 billion market cap looks stretched. Unless Bitcoin prices continue to rise, today’s premium may represent froth rather than fundamental worth. For believers, Strategy is the Berkshire Hathaway of Bitcoin. For skeptics, it is a leveraged speculation vehicle with limited underlying business to fall back on. The truth may be that it is both, but at current valuations, investors risk paying more for the story than for the assets.

 

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© 2024 by Ken Philips

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