Venezuela, oil, and the return of resource geopolitics

In recent years, much has been written about the decline of American power, the erosion of dollar dominance, and the rise of a multipolar world in which resources, rather than institutions, once again determine strategic outcomes. Against this backdrop, Venezuela re-emerges not as a failed state on the margins of global affairs, but as a country whose geology alone gives it outsized geopolitical relevance. At the center of this reassessment lies a simple but powerful idea: control over resources still matters, and among those resources, oil remains foundational.

Venezuela possesses the largest proven oil reserves in the world. This is not a symbolic distinction. It is a structural one. The bulk of these reserves consist of heavy and extra-heavy crude concentrated in the Orinoco Belt — precisely the type of oil that shaped the development of U.S. refining capacity over the twentieth century. The American energy system was never designed to rely exclusively on domestic drilling. Its comparative advantage has long been refining, logistics, and distribution. The logic is straightforward: the country that refines controls margins, pricing mechanisms, and downstream markets. Refining transforms raw geology into economic power. In this context, Venezuela and the United States are complementary. Venezuela holds the resource. The U.S. holds the industrial machinery capable of converting that resource into gasoline, diesel, petrochemicals, and strategic fuels. This relationship is not new; it predates the Chávez era. What is new is the geopolitical environment in which it could be reactivated.

Refining, pricing, and dollar settlement

If Venezuelan crude flows again at scale into U.S. refineries, the implications extend beyond energy prices. Refining activity increases domestic GDP, strengthens industrial employment, and reinforces the United States’ position as a central node in global energy markets. Crucially, refined products are sold internationally in U.S. dollars. This matters. In a world where many actors seek to reduce dollar exposure at the margins, the ability to anchor trade flows in USD remains a powerful stabilizing force for American monetary influence. This is not about weaponizing the dollar, but about maintaining its relevance through real economic activity. Energy remains one of the few sectors where physical necessity ensures persistent demand. By sitting at the refining chokepoint, the U.S. retains leverage not through coercion, but through indispensability.

At the domestic level, increased access to Venezuelan crude would help dampen energy volatility. Lower and more predictable energy costs cascade through the economy. Transportation becomes cheaper. Manufacturing margins improve. Consumer prices soften. Energy-intensive sectors gain competitiveness. Oil’s importance is not ideological; it is mechanical. Modern economies still run on hydrocarbons. Even in a world transitioning toward renewables, oil remains the backbone of logistics, aviation, chemicals, and defense. Any strategy that overlooks this reality risks mistaking aspiration for policy.

Oil may be the anchor, but it is not the only resource that matters. Venezuela also holds significant reserves of critical minerals, including bauxite — the raw material from which aluminum is produced. Aluminum is not a trivial commodity. It is essential to aerospace, defense systems, electrical infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing. Yet the United States has limited domestic bauxite reserves and remains exposed to global supply chains in which China plays a dominant role. Access to Venezuelan bauxite would therefore contribute to industrial autonomy, not by replacing global trade, but by diversifying it. The same logistics corridors developed for oil exports could support mineral flows, creating economies of scale and reducing strategic vulnerability.

Gold and sovereign wealth logic

Gold occupies a different, but equally important, position in the strategic framework. Venezuela holds the largest gold reserves in Latin America. Gold is not an industrial input; it is a monetary asset, and its role is distinct. For centuries, gold has functioned as a reserve of last resort — a hedge against currency debasement, geopolitical shock, and systemic crisis. Central banks understand this. That is why gold continues to accumulate on sovereign balance sheets, even in an era of fiat currency. Control over gold does not mean flooding markets or manipulating prices downward. Quite the opposite. Gold’s value lies in scarcity and confidence. Strategically managed, gold reserves function as a store of national wealth, a form of balance sheet resilience rather than a revenue stream. In this sense, Venezuelan gold represents optionality across generations. It is wealth that can be left underground, deployed selectively, or used as collateral in moments of stress. It is not meant to be consumed, but preserved.

Taken together — oil, minerals, and gold — Venezuela represents something rare: concentrated geological leverage within geographic proximity to the United States. In a world increasingly shaped by supply chain security and resource nationalism, proximity matters. While this may not imply a return to crude imperialism. Rather, it reflects a recognition that globalization has limits, and that strategic depth increasingly depends on reliable access to physical inputs. Financialization alone cannot substitute for energy, metals, and reserves. What distinguishes this approach from past resource politics is integration. Oil feeds refining. Refining feeds dollar trade. Minerals feed industry. Gold feeds sovereign resilience. Each component reinforces the others.

This narrative resonates because it addresses real anxieties: inflation, energy insecurity, strategic dependence, and the fragility of purely financial power. It offers a vision in which real assets reassert their importance, without abandoning modern economic structures.It also reflects a broader shift away from abstraction. For decades, economic discourse focused on flows, derivatives, and monetary tools. Increasingly, attention returns to stocks: barrels, tons, ounces. Not because finance no longer matters, but because it ultimately rests on physical reality. Agreeing with this narrative does not require believing that Venezuela alone can transform the U.S. economy. That would be naïve. But it does require recognizing that resource access amplifies power when aligned with industrial and monetary systems. Oil remains central. Minerals matter. Gold anchors confidence. Together, they form a strategic constellation that explains why Venezuela, long dismissed as a basket case, is once again geopolitically relevant. In an era of uncertainty, leverage matters, and leverage, more often than not, begins underground.