Escalation in Kashmir and strategic shifts: India’s move on the Indus River

In recent weeks, tensions between India and Pakistan have surged once again, with significant geopolitical and military ramifications. The most recent flashpoint is the ongoing violence in Kashmir, which has seen a sharp rise in attacks and retaliation, escalating tensions in the region. These hostilities have been coupled with a strategic shift in India’s handling of the Indus River, a vital resource shared by both nations.

Attacks and retaliation in Kashmir

The first signs of this escalation came on April 22, 2025, when a devastating militant attack occurred in the Baisaran Valley of Indian-administered Kashmir. The attack, which targeted a group of Hindu tourists, killed 26 people and sparked outrage in India. India accused Pakistan-based militant groups of orchestrating the attack, which led to the suspension of key provisions of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). The attack was just one of a series of assaults that India claims have been perpetuated by militant groups operating from Pakistani territory. In response, India launched missile strikes on what it described as militant camps in Pakistan, marking the most severe military exchange between the two nuclear-armed neighbors in more than two decades. The strikes were followed by retaliatory measures from Pakistan, including airspace violations and an increase in skirmishes along the Line of Control (LoC). Both countries engaged in a series of diplomatic expulsions, cutting trade ties, and even closing borders. Pakistan also suspended the Simla Agreement, which had been a cornerstone of the peace process between the two countries. While the situation has certainly escalated on the ground, one of the more significant developments has been India’s move to revisit the Indus Waters Treaty, a 1960 agreement that governs the shared use of the Indus River system. India’s response to these ongoing attacks and threats from across the border has now extended into the management of the Indus waters themselves.

India’s shift on the Indus Waters Treaty

On May 6, 2025, India made a dramatic move by suspending several provisions of the Indus Waters Treaty. The decision came after the renewed attacks in Kashmir and continued cross-border terrorism. Under the IWT, India controls the eastern rivers of the Indus Basin (the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej), while Pakistan controls the western rivers (the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum). India, however, is permitted to utilize the western rivers for non-consumptive uses like hydropower generation, and it has now accelerated the development of several hydroelectric projects on the western rivers, including the Pakal Dul, Kiru, Kwar, and Ratle dams on the Chenab River. These projects are particularly sensitive because they directly affect Pakistan’s water supply. Although these projects are meant to generate power for India’s energy needs, the flow of water to Pakistan has been significantly impacted by the construction of these dams. India is advancing these projects at a faster pace than originally planned, and the expected completion dates have been moved up to between 2026 and 2028. The accelerated development of these dams means that the flow of water into Pakistan will be increasingly regulated by India, which could lead to disruptions in Pakistan’s agriculture and water-dependent industries.

The immediate impact on Pakistan and water security

Pakistan has expressed grave concerns over India’s decision, claiming that the construction and potential diversion of water could lead to major agricultural disruptions. The Indus River is crucial for Pakistan’s agriculture, particularly in the Punjab region, which is the country’s breadbasket. Reduced water flow during critical planting seasons could severely damage crop yields, affecting millions of farmers and potentially causing food insecurity. Pakistan has raised the issue with the United Nations, accusing India of violating the terms of the IWT, which has been hailed as one of the most successful water-sharing agreements between two countries with tense relations. Pakistan has called for an international intervention, emphasizing the risk that water wars could further destabilize the region. The situation is so critical that experts have warned that the conflict could extend beyond military strikes and border skirmishes, potentially evolving into a water conflict that could have severe consequences for both countries.

What India hopes to achieve

India’s move to suspend the provisions of the treaty and advance its hydroelectric projects is seen as part of a broader strategy to gain leverage over Pakistan. By controlling the water flow, India can exert pressure on Pakistan in ways that go beyond traditional military tactics. Water, after all, is a precious resource in a region already facing immense challenges like population growth, climate change, and resource scarcity. The Indian government has also emphasized that these hydroelectric projects are vital for the country’s energy security and economic growth. With rising energy demands, India’s push to build more hydroelectric capacity on the western rivers represents a significant part of its long-term energy strategy. However, this ambition also comes with considerable geopolitical risks, particularly with the fragile state of relations with Pakistan.

International implications and diplomatic pressure

As tensions rise, international bodies like the United Nations and the World Bank, which had previously facilitated dialogue between the two countries on water-sharing issues, have called for immediate talks to resolve the crisis. The United States, China, and other major powers have expressed concern that the conflict could escalate into a full-blown war. The weaponization of water adds a new dimension to the conflict, potentially drawing in international actors who may seek to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control. The suspension of the IWT provisions also has consequences beyond India and Pakistan’s bilateral relationship. It could set a dangerous precedent for other countries in South Asia and globally, where water disputes could become more prevalent as climate change exacerbates water scarcity. The international community is watching closely, hoping that diplomatic negotiations can ease the tensions and restore some degree of cooperation between the two countries.

The future of the Indus River and regional stability

The coming weeks and months will be critical in determining whether the Indus River becomes a permanent source of conflict between India and Pakistan or if the two nations can return to the negotiating table. With both countries on high alert and nationalistic sentiments running high, the risk of further escalation remains significant. The Indus River, once a symbol of cooperation between India and Pakistan, now risks becoming a tool of geopolitical leverage in an already tense region. As both countries jockey for control of the water, the long-standing peace established by the Indus Waters Treaty is under severe strain. Whether this crisis can be defused will depend on a delicate balancing act of diplomacy, military restraint, and international pressure.