Ukraine's hidden war: the battle for Rare Earths and strategic minerals

The war in Ukraine is often framed as a geopolitical struggle between Russia and the West, driven by historical tensions, security concerns, and territorial ambitions. However, beneath the surface lies another crucial dimension; control over Ukraine’s vast reserves of rare earth elements, lithium, titanium, and other strategic minerals. As global demand for these resources surges, the battle for Ukraine’s mineral wealth has become an unspoken but critical factor in the conflict.

Ukraine's strategic mineral reserves

Titanium: the metal of aerospace and defense

Ukraine has some of the world’s largest deposits of titanium. Titanium is critical for the aerospace industry, military applications (missiles, armor, submarines), and medical implants. The U.S. and Europe rely heavily on titanium but import most of it from Russia and China. If Russia secures Ukrainian titanium mines, it could further tighten control over the global supply chain.

Lithium: the future of energy and mobility

Significant lithium deposits are found in Donetsk, Kirovohrad, and Zaporizhzhia. Lithium is essential for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, renewable energy storage, and tech devices. Before the war, Western and Chinese companies were vying for mining contracts in Ukraine. Russian control over these deposits would further limit Western efforts to secure alternative lithium sources and increase Moscow’s leverage in the EV revolution.

Rare earth elements (REEs): the backbone of modern technology

Ukraine has substantial, though underdeveloped, rare earth deposits. These elements are used in electronics, military technology (radar, fighter jets, precision-guided missiles), and green energy (wind turbines, solar panels). China dominates 90% of global rare earth refining. Before the war, Ukraine was exploring partnerships with Western firms to develop its rare earth sector. Russian control would limit Western access to these critical materials.

Uranium: the key to energy independence

Ukraine has Europe’s largest uranium reserves. Essential for nuclear energy and potential military applications. Ukraine historically depended on Russia for uranium enrichment, but was pivoting toward Western partnerships. Russia’s seizure of nuclear facilities, including the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant, gives Moscow significant influence over Ukraine’s energy future.

Coal & natural gas: the war for energy security

Ukraine has major coal and gas fields in Donbas, Luhansk, and the Black Sea. By controlling Donbas and eastern Ukraine, Russia has captured much of Ukraine’s energy production. This weakens Ukraine’s economy and increases Russia’s leverage over Europe’s energy markets.

How Ukraine’s resources shape the war

Many of Ukraine’s richest mineral deposits are in Eastern Ukraine, Crimea, and the Black Sea, areas Russia has occupied or is trying to seize. By controlling resource-rich regions, Russia gains direct economic benefits while weakening Ukraine’s ability to finance its war effort. Russia’s control over these materials could also be used to pressure Western industries reliant on Ukrainian minerals. Western sanctions are designed to cut Russia off from high-tech industries that rely on rare earths and semiconductors. The U.S. and EU are investing billions to secure alternative sources of rare earths and lithium, reducing reliance on Russia and China. Western nations are accelerating efforts to develop Ukraine’s mining industry, offering financial and technological support to keep these resources out of Russian hands. China dominates global rare earth production and has strong trade ties with Russia; it has not condemned Russia’s invasion and could benefit from increased access to Ukraine’s rare earths and lithium if Russia gains control. However, Western companies were actively investing in Ukraine’s mining sector before the war, meaning China risks losing a potentially significant supplier.

What happens next?

Russia could monopolize Ukraine’s rare earths, lithium, and titanium, increasing its economic and military power. Western industries, including EV batteries, defense, and aerospace, would face significant supply disruptions. Russia could use these resources to bargain for sanctions relief or leverage them against geopolitical rivals. If Ukraine defends key resource areas, it could develop a Western-aligned mining sector, reducing Europe’s dependence on Russia and China. The war could accelerate global investment in non-Russian mineral supplies, weakening Moscow’s influence over strategic industries. Ukraine could become a key supplier of critical materials for the West, boosting its economic recovery post-war.

So is the war about rare earths?

While rare earths and strategic minerals may not be the primary cause of the war, they are a crucial factor in its economic and geopolitical stakes. Russia’s territorial ambitions align closely with Ukraine’s richest resource areas, and control over these minerals could reshape the balance of power in energy, technology, and defense industries for decades. The outcome of the war will determine who controls these essential materials and how global supply chains evolve in the coming years.