In my book, The Finding - Itihad, I explore how global crises can serve as catalysts—or cover stories—for long-term geopolitical strategies. One key question I examine is whether Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was years in the making, with early signals as far back as 2020. Among the indicators, NATO's Defender 2020 military exercise and Russia's reaction to it stand out as pivotal moments, revealing the heightened tensions and strategic posturing that foreshadowed the eventual conflict.
The Warning Signs of 2020
Military Drills and Strategic Posturing
In 2020, NATO conducted Defender 2020, the largest U.S.-led military exercise in Europe in decades, involving 20,000 U.S. troops and thousands of NATO allies. The exercise was a show of strength and readiness near Russia’s borders. Moscow viewed it as a direct threat, responding with intensified military drills in Crimea and along Ukraine’s border. These Russian maneuvers, combined with logistical preparations like supply line development, hinted at something far more long-term than a simple counterexercise.
Ideological Framing
Putin’s rhetoric became increasingly focused on Ukraine’s historical ties to Russia, portraying Western influence as an existential threat. The Kremlin’s "Russian World" (Russkiy Mir) doctrine gained prominence, justifying the reintegration of former Soviet territories as a matter of national destiny.
Cyber and Disinformation Campaigns
Russia escalated its cyberattacks on Ukraine and intensified disinformation campaigns aimed at weakening the government and destabilizing public trust. These tactics align with modern hybrid warfare, preparing the battlefield psychologically and politically before conventional military action.
Belarus as a New Frontline
Amid political turmoil in Belarus, Putin strengthened ties with President Alexander Lukashenko, effectively positioning Belarus as a strategic partner. This created a northern front for potential future operations against Ukraine, expanding Russia’s tactical options.
The Role of Defender 2020
The scale and intent of Defender 2020 likely influenced Russia’s strategic calculations. While the exercise was designed to reinforce NATO’s commitment to European security, Moscow saw it as a provocation. Russia’s response included joint drills with Belarus and increased readiness along NATO’s eastern flank, signaling that tensions were escalating.
The pandemic curtailed Defender 2020, reducing its scope and limiting troop movements. This may have emboldened Russia, demonstrating potential vulnerabilities in NATO’s ability to project power during crises.
Did COVID-19 Provide a Strategic Opportunity?
The pandemic created a perfect storm of distraction and disruption:
Western Distraction: NATO countries were consumed by pandemic management, reducing their focus on Russian maneuvers.
Energy Dependency: Europe’s reliance on Russian natural gas deepened during the pandemic, limiting its leverage.
NATO’s Divisions: Internal disagreements over pandemic responses exposed fractures within the alliance, emboldening Russia to act.
The convergence of military exercises, strategic positioning, and global vulnerabilities suggests that 2020 was a turning point. Russia appeared to use the year to refine its plans, test NATO’s resolve, and position itself for future aggression. The events surrounding Defender 2020 underscore the complexities of modern conflict, where military drills, hybrid warfare, and geopolitical distractions all intertwine. In The Finding - Itihad, I argue that such patterns are not anomalies but recurring features of global crises. Recognizing these signs is crucial for anticipating and mitigating future conflicts.
Comments